Coronavirus & Risk Communications

February 3, 2020

Beyond the headlines and soundbites, the main effect from coronavirus seen thus far in the United States may be confusion.
Who to believe. What to believe. And how best to prepare and think about this latest global threat right now.

Today, we offer analysis and advice from perhaps the United States’ preeminent risk communication
speaker and consultant, Dr. Peter Sandman.  

“No Reason for Alarm” Is a Foolishly Over-Reassuring Message about the
Novel Coronavirus Spreading from Wuhan, China

By Peter Sandman

Executive Summary

• “No reason for alarm,” is bad science as well as bad risk communication.
•  Telling people not to worry about an emerging infectious disease because it isn’t a significant risk here and now is foolish.
• Given the real possibility that the coronavirus might start spreading locally in North American cities, now is the right time to prepare.
• Instead of deriding people’s fears about the Wuhan coronavirus, officials and reporters should focus more on the high likelihood that things will get worse and the not-so-small possibility that they will get much worse.
• The bigger need is to reduce public overreaction later to predictable bad news that will take people by surprise insofar as they weren’t sufficiently forewarned and didn’t get enough chance to “rehearse emotionally. “
• At the early stages of an outbreak, there’s much uncertainty, and probably more than everyone would like…guidelines and advice are likely to be interim and fluid, subject to change as we learn more.

My most fervent risk communication complaint at the moment is the tendency of many top officials in the U.S., Canada, and Europe to overemphasize the fact that the risk of the novel Wuhan coronavirus here and now is tiny – as if that meant that people should (or could!) wait to worry until the risk here and now got bigger. “No reason for alarm,” is bad science as well as bad risk communication. Officials and experts are alarmed already – reason enough for the public to gird up its loins as well.

Worry is about the future. Telling people not to worry about an emerging infectious disease because it isn’t a significant risk here and now is foolish. We want people to worry about measles when there’s very little measles around, so they will take the precaution of vaccinating their children before it’s imminently necessary. We want people to worry about retirement when they’re years away from retiring, so they will start saving now.

Given the real possibility that the coronavirus might start spreading locally in North American cities, now is the right time to worry and prepare, at least emotionally and perhaps logistically as well. There’s not much reason to wear masks against the coronavirus in North America now. Masks may or may not turn out to be useful in the months ahead. In case they do turn out useful, buying them now is provident, not panicky.

Even more importantly, telling people they are foolish to worry about an emerging infectious disease is patronizing and contemptuous – when what is needed is empathy.

For the rest of this article, click here:  http://www.psandman.com/articles/Corona1.htm

For additional reading on this subject:

“Fear Is Spreading Faster than SARS” – And So It Should!
by Peter M. Sandman and Jody Lanard

Containment as Signal:  Swine Flu Risk Miscommunication
by Peter M. Sandman and Jody Lanard

For practical tips from Hennes Communications, click here.